2020.SP.PHI.2130.001.: Argument & Inference, Section 01 (Spring 2020)”Due – 12 Hours”Answer: 6 Questions:Answer: 3 Short Essays Questions Answer these Multiple-choice Questions:1 – What is the Primary purpose of Bayes’ Theorem? 2 – To what rule is Bayes’ Theorem Equivalent?3 – What is prior probability?4 – What is posterior probability?5- How does someone estimate prior probability in Bayes’ Theorem? Prior statistical evidence? Educated guesses? Sometimes one or the other or a combination of the above two? prior probability, and posterior probability Why?6 – How could Bayes’ Theorem be used to help evaluate how effective a potential vaccine against COVID-19? Think in terms of the probability of getting the disease before the vaccine and after, and then relate that to prior and posterior probability. Three Short Essays: Answer the three “Short Essay Questions” Please. thanks Write an “Essay” that simply asks you to show how Bayes’ Theorem could work given a particular problem in “Business Admin/Human Resources Management.The second question asks; that if Bayes’ Theorem at sometimes in history shows a higher probability for a particular hypothesis, and later on a lower one, and perhaps later on higher again, how can we trust the reliability of science as a source of knowledge?The Oxford philosopher Richard Swinburne has argued that Bayes’ Theorem can be used to show that the probability of God’s existence given new evidence of intelligent design is greater than 50%. Is this a legitimate use of Bayes’ Theorem? Why or why not? (For those interested in science and religion, he makes an anthropic argument for God’s existence).
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PHI – 2130
Argument & Inferences
Section 0001
Spring 2020
Answer these Multiple-choice Questions:
1 – What is the Primary purpose of Bayes’ Theorem?
2 – To what rule is Bayes’ Theorem Equivalent?
3 – What is prior probability?
4 – What is posterior probability?
5- How does someone estimate prior probability in Bayes’ Theorem? Prior statistical evidence?
Educated guesses? Sometimes one or the other or a combination of the above two? prior
probability, and posterior probability Why?
6 – How could Bayes’ Theorem be used to help evaluate how effective a potential vaccine against
COVID-19? Think in terms of the probability of getting the disease before the vaccine and after,
and then relate that to prior and posterior probability.
Three Short Essays: Answer the three “Short Essay Questions” Please. thanks
•
Write an “Essay” that simply asks you to show how Bayes’ Theorem could work given a
particular problem in “Business Admin/Human Resources Management.
•
The second question asks; that if Bayes’ Theorem at sometimes in history shows a higher
probability for a particular hypothesis, and later on a lower one, and perhaps later on higher
again, how can we trust the reliability of science as a source of knowledge?
•
The Oxford philosopher Richard Swinburne has argued that Bayes’ Theorem can be used to show
that the probability of God’s existence given new evidence of intelligent design is greater than
50%. Is this a legitimate use of Bayes’ Theorem? Why or why not? (For those interested in
science and religion, he makes an anthropic argument for God’s existence).

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